Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 12.413253 14.221189 16.171189 18.427110 20.961264 23.716192 26.933937
2025-03-30 9.923881 12.404848 15.289281 18.875531 23.198582 28.224605 34.492111
2025-04-06 8.414584 11.131507 14.446851 18.762232 24.199759 30.789960 39.344076
2025-04-13 6.894315 9.616593 13.091180 17.808633 23.997365 31.784710 42.261568
2025-04-20 6.247207 9.106783 12.894915 18.219102 25.436622 34.797457 47.757884
2025-04-27 5.695428 8.646916 12.692518 18.560534 26.754525 37.674287 53.185096
2025-05-04 5.095815 8.043540 12.217465 18.454713 27.410151 39.650967 57.456299
2025-05-11 4.541526 7.441520 11.677427 18.188936 27.786900 41.221419 61.201008
2025-05-18 4.144388 7.031038 11.370570 18.217414 28.555110 43.341347 65.777022
2025-05-25 3.843179 6.736569 11.204979 18.428127 29.579167 45.849408 70.995173
2025-06-01 3.526072 6.383241 10.914079 18.413727 30.244612 47.842489 75.526547
2025-06-08 3.211341 6.001750 10.543572 18.237853 30.634090 49.420491 79.484615
2025-06-15 2.989321 5.763069 10.393460 18.415511 31.603975 51.951221 85.048746
2025-06-22 2.863373 5.680936 10.495268 19.008869 33.265934 55.621306 92.525757
2025-06-29 2.619042 5.360051 10.162623 18.844409 33.672205 57.326761 96.991168
2025-07-06 2.277031 4.823236 9.409795 17.903820 32.726259 56.819637 97.909837
2025-07-13 2.172133 4.727567 9.431980 18.310289 34.064595 60.047157 104.942292
2025-07-20 2.066667 4.620152 9.422684 18.655365 35.308045 63.162660 111.906307
2025-07-27 1.910189 4.394636 9.175297 18.548327 35.748597 64.950513 116.737091
2025-08-03 1.748349 4.141671 8.855062 18.281591 35.883282 66.215987 120.728977
2025-08-10 1.635233 3.980338 8.698940 18.310112 36.544910 68.400119 126.348200
2025-08-17 1.551141 3.873595 8.641825 18.521816 37.547309 71.207781 133.132418
2025-08-24 1.449960 3.718783 8.475414 18.507340 38.123295 73.282853 138.714342